With a 45% win rate, a streak of 8 losses in a row within 250 trades is normal: half of all traders will live through it. Enter your win rate and see yours.
A streak within the normal range is variance: it doesn't mean your strategy stopped working. Knowing it in advance prevents the two most expensive mistakes: doubling up to win it back and dropping a good system at the worst time.
The worst streak that is normal
8
losses in a row (half of all traders will live through that or worse)
61 %
Chance of each streak
What to do with this number
- Before the streak: decide your size ladder in cold blood (for example, half size after losing 5 typical losses and a quarter after 8). In our simulations, a ladder like this kept the risk of ruin near zero in exchange for some profit.
- During the streak: if it's within the normal range, follow your plan. If you go well beyond it, review: the market may have changed, or you may be trading outside your plan.
- Never: double up to win it back. It's the mistake that multiplies the risk of ruin the most.
Next step: find out what's sabotaging you with the free test, or check how many evaluations you'd pass in the prop firm simulator.
Exact math assuming independent trades with the same win rate. In real data, losses tend to cluster a little more (bad days), so these figures are the minimum to expect.
Educational content based on our own experience. Not investment advice. Firm rules change: check them on each firm's website. This article contains no affiliate links.