The honest guide to futures prop firms

Data, not hype. We tested hundreds of setups on 20 years of Nasdaq data against each firm's real rules. We tell you what holds up, what doesn't, and give you the tools to check it with your own trades.

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Will you pass your evaluation?

Simulate 3,000 APEX or Lucid evaluations with your stats or your NinjaTrader CSV: chance of passing, chance of blowing the account, sessions needed and the size that suits you. Your data never leaves your computer.

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What we measured

Results from our lab, with real costs and data the strategy had never seen. Simulated results.

11%

pass a Lucid 50K with the best of the 13 most popular TradingView strategies. 36% blow the account.

≈ 1 in 9

pass an APEX 50K (pre-2026 rules) with the best automated system we tested. About 1 in 4 blow it.

≈ 18%

of pure chance passes a Lucid 50K in 3 sessions or fewer at maximum size (and 69% blow it). In a hurry, luck decides, not the strategy.

52.4%

accuracy of a machine learning model on new data: it doesn't even cover the costs.

Lab

One question, one result with its number, and how it was measured. No strategies or signals for sale.

Start here · guide

How to pass a prop firm evaluation: what the data says

Nine things measured in our lab, in order: edge after costs, time limit, size, trailing drawdown, daily loss limit, consistency and what to be wary of.

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New · calculator

Daily loss limit: when it ends your day and when it blows the account

At normal size you never hit it. If it blows the account and you trade 3× your size, pass rates collapse. How many losses can you take in a day?

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New · calculator

The consistency rule: who it stops and who it doesn't

At normal size it changes nothing; at 4× size, pass rates drop from 38.6% to 25.9%. Work out your real target after a big day.

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Explained

Trailing drawdown explained

Why winning also brings you closer to blowing the account, and why intraday trailing passes fewer evaluations than end of day with the same trades.

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Calculator

How many contracts to trade in a prop firm account

The 10-typical-losses rule raised pass rates from 64% to 91% in our simulations, without touching the strategy.

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Study

13 TradingView strategies against a prop firm account

SuperTrend, UT Bot, Squeeze, Ichimoku, SSL… with the exact rules of a Lucid 50K. The best one passes 11%.

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Glossary

Futures prop firm glossary

45 terms in one or two sentences: intraday and end-of-day trailing drawdown, consistency, daily loss limit, time limit, activation, reset, payout and how to measure a strategy.

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More studies (order flow against chance, choosing a firm by its time limit, what held up over two exams…) are available in Spanish; we are translating them.

Prop firms

Our policy: FondeoReal sells nothing and has no affiliate links. If that ever changes, we'll say so on every page, and it won't change any ranking or rating. If a firm has payout problems or changes its rules without notice, we'll report it even if it pays us.