On Fed days, the half hour after the 2:00 pm statement moves 2.8× as much as normal, and on 72% of them it moved more than double. CPI days are only a little busier (1.1× the range, 1.2× the first half hour) and jobs report days barely differ from a normal day. The danger isn't the day: it's the minute.
We compared 1,813 Micro Nasdaq sessions (2019-2026, 9:30 am to 4:00 pm New York time) with the official release dates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Federal Reserve. Each news day is compared with the median of the 20 normal days before it, so very volatile years (2020, 2022) don't skew the result.
News days against normal days
| Day | Days | Whole session | First 30 min | 2:00-2:30 pm |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPI | 84 | 1.1× | 1.2× | 1.2× |
| Jobs report | 81 | 1.0× | 1.1× | 1.1× |
| Fed (FOMC) | 54 | 1.3× | 0.8× | 2.8× |
| Normal day | 1590 | 1.0× | 1.0× | 1.0× |
Medians of each range (high minus low), as a multiple of the same window over the 20 previous normal days. CPI and jobs come out at 8:30 am, before the open; the Fed statement at 2:00 pm, in the middle of the session. Only scheduled Fed meetings (not the 2019-2020 emergency ones).
What it means
- Fed day: the danger is at 2:00 pm. The open is calmer than usual (0.8×) and the half hour before the statement looks normal (1.0×). Then, in 30 minutes, 2.8×; on a quarter of Fed days, more than 4.1×. Whatever your firm allows, your trailing drawdown takes that hit if you're in.
- CPI: the surprise comes with the open. The data comes out an hour before the open, so the jump is already in the gap and in the first half hour (1.2×). The rest of the day is close to normal.
- Jobs report: almost a normal day. The whole session moves 1.0× and the first half hour 1.1×. Most of the reaction happens before the open.
- Averages hide the risk. By chance alone, 7% of normal days move more than double. On CPI days it's 8% and on jobs days 10%: hardly more. The Fed half hour is the exception (72%).
For your prop firm account
- Check the calendar every morning: Can I trade today? shows the week's releases in your time zone.
- Check what your firm allows: some forbid trading around releases or straddles (see news and bots by prop firm).
- On Fed days, decide before 2:00 pm: flat, or with a stop and a size you'd accept being hit at double the usual distance.
Educational content based on our own experience. Not investment advice. Firm rules change: check them on each firm's website. This article contains no affiliate links.