Hardly at all. On quarterly expiration Fridays (the "quad witching"), the Micro Nasdaq moved 1.09× its usual range, versus 1.04× on any other Friday, and the last half hour 1.08× versus 0.98×. Monthly options expiration Fridays were actually calmer (0.89×). The famous "witching hour" doesn't show up in the Nasdaq's range.
We measured 1,793 Micro Nasdaq sessions (2019-2026, 9:30 am to 4:00 pm New York time). Each day is compared with the median of the 20 sessions before it, so calm and wild years count the same. Quarterly expiration: third Friday of March, June, September and December. Monthly: the third Friday of every other month.
Expiration Fridays against other Fridays
| Friday | Days | Whole session | First half hour | Last half hour |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterly expiration (quad witching) | 28 | 1.09× | 1.10× | 1.08× |
| Monthly options expiration | 55 | 0.89× | 0.99× | 0.88× |
| Other Fridays | 271 | 1.04× | 1.01× | 0.98× |
Median range (high minus low) as a multiple of the same window over the 20 previous sessions.
What to take from it
- It's a small sample. There have only been 28 quarterly expirations since 2019: differences of 5 or 10% are within the noise.
- A busy day isn't necessarily a volatile one. Expiration days are known for heavy trading at the close; in our data, though, price doesn't move much more than on any other Friday.
- What does move the Nasdaq is the calendar of releases: the half hour after a Fed statement moves 2.8 times as much as normal (see CPI, jobs and Fed days).
- If you trade futures, the date that matters is the roll, about a week before expiration: check that you're trading the right contract.
Educational content based on our own experience. Not investment advice. Firm rules change: check them on each firm's website. This article contains no affiliate links.