Not in the data. The first time each day price touched a round 100 like 18,000, it bounced 10 points before breaking 10 points 51.5% of the time (±1.6%): a coin flip. An arbitrary level like 18,037 bounced 51.0%. And round numbers don't attract price either: they get reached as often as any other price at the same distance.
We measured 1,813 Micro Nasdaq sessions (2019-2026), New York session (9:30 am-4:00 pm), around 3,563 first touches of round 100s. As a control we used "any" levels: the same grid shifted 13, 37 and 63 points, where nobody puts an order on purpose.
Does price bounce off round numbers?
| Bounce of | Round 100s (18,000) | Round 50s (18,050) | Any level (18,037...) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 points | 53.4% | 50.4% | 53.1% |
| 10 points | 51.5% | 49.4% | 51.0% |
| 20 points | 50.7% | 49.7% | 49.8% |
First touch of each level in the day, counting from the next 1-minute bar: share of times price came back X points (bounce) before going X points beyond (break). 50% is a coin flip. If both happen in the same bar, the case isn't counted.
Do round numbers attract price?
| Distance | Reaches the round 100 | Reaches its mirror | Reaches level …37 | Reaches its mirror |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10 points | 93% | 93% | 93% | 93% |
| 10–25 points | 79% | 78% | 79% | 78% |
| 25–50 points | 59% | 59% | 59% | 59% |
| 50–100 points | 35% | 35% | 35% | 35% |
Every 15 minutes from 10:00 am to 3:00 pm: the nearest level above and below, and whether price touches it before 4:00 pm, against the mirror level at the same distance on the other side. 75,442 cases for the round 100s.
Why round numbers "work" on a chart
- You only remember the bounces. Half of the touches bounce, at 18,000 and at 18,037 alike; the eye picks the ones at round numbers.
- Price touches every level often. A level 10 points away gets touched over 90% of the time, round or not.
- If the whole market knew it, it would stop working. A free, obvious edge gets traded away; what's left is the coin flip we measured.
What it's good for
- Don't put your stop exactly on a round number expecting protection, nor right behind it: it gets hit as often as any other price.
- A coin flip with costs loses money: see what any stop and target does on its own in risk/reward with random entries.
- Same conclusion for other famous levels: Asian, London and previous day highs and the VWAP.
Educational content based on our own experience. Not investment advice. Firm rules change: check them on each firm's website. This article contains no affiliate links.